By Kathy Cook Hunter
Rufus La Lone is famous for his accuracy predicting the unpredictable moods of Mother Nature.
The Silverton area resident keeps track of and predicts weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest and reports his findings on his Web site “The Weather Café.”
“I try to give a heads up to the agricultural, business and school communities – a long-range perspective on potential weather events,” said La Lone.
The Pacific Northwest is prone to sudden storms that people aren’t ready for if they’re not informed, he said.
What he offers through The Weather Café with its friendly, “let’s-have-a-cuppa-coffee-together” ring is another tool for industries and school districts that must be prepared.
He does not charge for his work, saying, “It’s a community service.”
In November 2006, he saw wind and heavy rain hitting Washington, bringing potential for major flooding – areas in northwest Washington saw the highest water in years, unprepared farms lost many animals and Interstate 5 was shut down for days.
In 2007, he helped patrons in in typically balmy Southern California prepare for an extreme cold snap when temperatures fell into the 20s.
Remember the cold Arctic blast last December that threw a snowball by mid-month and pelted the Northwest through the holidays?
La Lone saw it coming, on Dec. 8 writing “Deep freeze coming” on The Weather Café and detailing low temperatures and ice would hit the Northwest and Northern California.
Summing up, he wrote, “Impact: This could be the COLDEST wx (reporter’s note: short for “weather”) event over the PNW since January 2007. The region could have 2-3 days with temps continuously below freezing for nearly all locations. Just in case this event unfolds, use the time this week to prep for livestock protection (water), pets, home/business property. School closures or delays likely Monday and Tuesday.”
Serving patrons from San Diego to British Columbia, he uses a discussion format, such as “Will it get extremely hot or windy or cold?”
He usually avoids specific temperature predictions, he said. “I interact with the National Weather Service scientists but try not to be influenced by them.”
Located on the Oregon Vineyard Service’s Web site, The Weather Café is also found by searching for “The Weather Café,” La Lone said.
Comments on the site call his forecasts “uncanny,” “a weather forecast I can rely on” and “concise, detailed enough but not too wordy.”
A manager at J. Frank Schmidt Nursery in Boring said, “I particularly like your forecasts because they are not bogged down with details – just straight and to the point with enough humor to keep everyone interested.”
La Lone often refers to “models” in his weather message.
“Models are very highly complex computer solutions that are based on assimilated historical weather data, current atmospheric physics and projections of these into the future,” he explained.
“There are several different computer models out there, such as the GFS and NCEP (via the U.S. Government), NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Canadian, European and military.
Although credentialed with a degree in biology and holding a master of science degree in entomology, La Lone has long had an interest in meteorology. He actually makes his living as an entomologist.
He started with forecasts for his friends and colleagues in the early 1970s, and in 1994 developed The Weather Café.
Over 30 years of forecasting, he’s learned which models seem to work best in which areas.
“As technology has improved, so has weather forecasting,” he said. Not an alarmist, he aims “to get out the weather in a clear, usable, practical way.”
La Lone produces a new Weather Café forecast every Monday and Friday which appears at www.ovs.com/weather_cafe
“It’s grown popular because of the accuracy and usefulness of the information provided,” he said. “Weather and climate have such impact on everything we do.”
