A proposed $138 million facilities bond for the Silver Falls School District is likely to struggle for voter approval, according to polling data shared with the District Board on Monday, June 12.
A finalized bond proposal was presented to the board that night and they are expected to vote on whether or not to place the bond on the ballot during their next meeting Tuesday, June 20.
If the matter were put to voters today, just less than half would likely support the measure, according to research shared by consultant Ben Petankin, of Patinkin Research Strategies.
Between May 31 and June 2, Petankin’s firm surveyed 400 likely voters within the district to learn how they felt about the bond.
When voters were given only the proposed ballot title, they were 44% in favor, 36% against and 20% undecided. When given a more thorough explanation including talking points about the benefits of the bond, the same voters were 49% in favor, 41% against 10% undecided.
Petankin said this 49% support was within the margin of error and it is possible the bond could pass, but the district would need to heavily invest in community outreach.
“The more people know about challenges at the schools, the more likely they are to vote yes,” he said.
Fellow consultant Jeremy Wright, of Wright Public Affairs, said if the bond passed it would be by a “razor-thin” margin and the district should be ready to engage in community outreach through election day Nov. 7.
“You do have a challenge, no question,” said Wright.
This potential for passage comes after district voters rejected two prior in recent years: a $24.9 million bond in 2014 with 55.7% disapproval, and a $36.9 million bond in 2013 with 56.4% disapproval.
Petankin said those most likely to oppose the bond were voters who do not currently have students in the district, voters above the age of 50 and male voters. Those most likely to support the bond included voters with current or incoming students, voters with college degrees and female voters.
He said outreach to all potential voters should focus on the bond as an investment in critical infrastructure, noting communities who invest in schools tend to have stronger economies. He also said the district should emphasize that it would be held accountable for bond expenditures through third-party audits, and the bond would allow students to learn in safe, modern classrooms.
“There is a path,” Petankin told the board. “You can move people. It is a matter of getting out there and speaking with one voice about the needs of your community.”
The district has spent five years exploring the possibility of a facilities bond to address aging infrastructure and deferred maintenance. They began in earnest in September of 2022 with formation of a Bond Advisory Committee, who helped research the district’s facilities needs and explored the potential reception of voters to a bond.
The committee held its last meeting May 30 and proposed a $138 million bond for the upcoming November election. Included were $75 million to rebuild Silverton Middle School and $68 million for renovations and improvements at all other schools.
The district also plans to apply for a $4 million grant through the Oregon School Capital Improvement Matching Program, which is meant to incentivise support for facilities bonds. If the bond does not pass, the $4 million would not be awarded.
During Monday’s meeting, board members agreed on the importance of community outreach and said the district will need to communicate openly and clearly to reach undecided voters. They also said it will be important to honor the work done by the bond committee and make few changes to the proposal, if any, when voting on the bond June 20.
The board has the ultimate say in the details of the bond, including the monetary amount and when it will appear on the ballot. Board Member Jonathan Edmonds said, when he served on a bond committee in 2013, the board at the time approved a drastically different bond including a 60% increase in the proposed cost.
“I don’t want that to be us,” he said.
Board Chair Jennifer Traeger said it is important to trust the process the district has followed so far, and if anything seems unclear to ask more questions. Board Vice-Chair Aaron Koch said the proposed bond is not perfect, but the proposed measure “is the exact bond that we need for our kids and for our district right now.”
“This is leaving a legacy for our community and our kids for generations to come,” said Koch. “…We have to be all-in here. It’s all-in or nothing.”
